20 March 2006, 12:48  The US dollar was moving in relatively tight ranges

The US dollar was moving in relatively tight ranges in late trade as investors remained unwilling to push the unit up sharply ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech tonight. Bernanke is scheduled to address the Economic Club of New York at 7:00 p.m EST where he is expected to speak on the current state of the US economy and monetary policy. With dealers blaming last week's sharp dollar retreat to shifting expectations about Fed policy, Bernanke's comments have taken on added importance, especially ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, dealers said. "Nevertheless, we expect Bernanke to focus more on the theoretical underpinnings of the yield curve and its relationship with monetary policy, and provide little, if any, guidance on near-term policy leanings," analysts at United Overseas Bank said. The dollar inched higher against the yen and euro at the start of the session, partly driven by views that last week's selloff may have been excessive given the dollar retains a strong yield advantage over its major rivals. The dollar-yen touched 116.00 yen early in the session and has since held on despite coming off a high of 116.43 in the face of offers from 116.50 and 117.00. The euro-dollar witnessed a slow move lower early this morning and has stayed under the levels it traded at late Friday in New York. The pair marked a high of 1.2188 usd earlier and then came off to 1.2170 usd, in the face of heavy selling from 1.2200. Still, dealers believe the potential for further euro gains remain, and a break above technical resistance of 1.2200/05 usd toward 1.2230/40 is seen as likely over the next few sessions, dealers said. "The elements that have lifted the euro are still in play. Lower Treasury yields, reserve management and concerns over US protectionism," said currency dealers at UBS AG. That last factor could also take center-stage this week as the highly anticipated visit of US senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham to China begins. Schumer and Graham have been pushing a bill to impose punitive 27.5 pct tariff on China's imports into the US because of accusations that Beijing keeps its currency, the yuan, undervalued. A vote on the bill is to be held on March 31. "Any indication that they plan to push for an early vote on their China tariff legislation would be quite dollar-negative but we may not get clarity over their intentions on timing of their amendment until after they return to Washington the following week," UBS said.

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