8 February 2006, 13:03  Oil prices fall through key 63 usd level in Asian trade

Oil prices fell through the key 63 usd support level in Asian trading hours as geopolitical concerns faded, dealers said. At 3.34 pm (0734 GMT) here, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, was down 0.23 usd at 62.86 usd a barrel after skidding 2.02 usd to close at 63.00 usd a barrel in the US overnight. "Right around 63 usd is a very important support point," said Tony Nunan, manager for energy risk management at Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business in Tokyo. Having broken through 63 usd, market players are betting the price will drop to the next support level of about 60 usd, he said. "It looks as though the fundamentals have taken over the driver's seat" and pushed aside geopolitical factors, primarily concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, Nunan said. The UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, voted Saturday to refer Tehran to the Security Council over its nuclear program. In retaliation, Iran resumed uranium enrichment and stopped UN spot checks of its nuclear sites. Some dealers fear that possible UN sanctions against Iran may lead to disruptions of supply from the oil-rich nation. Iran is the second bigget producer OPEC, exporting 2.7 mln barrels of crude per day. Nunan said he is expecting a strong report on US inventories later today. The consensus forecast of analysts is for crude stocks to have risen by 800,000 barrels last week, while gasoline reserves are predicted to have increased by 1.6 mln barrels. John Kilduff, analyst at Fimat USA, agreed that some of the concerns about a standoff with Iran affecting the oil market have retreated. "Basically, some easing of the tension vis-a-vis the Iran situation helped to take some of the worries out of the market in term of potential supply disruption from that country," he said. However, he said traders are not ruling out a crisis over Iran. "You still have to be quite worried about the Iran situation worsening -- and worsening quickly -- and causing prices to go back up," he said. Nunan also warned that the geoplitical risk from Iran has not gone away and that unrest in oil-rich Nigeria has also not been resolved. "For now it's off the radar screen," Nunan said.

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