6 February 2006, 13:32  Dollar pushes to seven-week euro highs on follow-through buying

The dollar pushed towards seven week highs on some follow through buying following Friday's gains in the wake of the solid US jobs report for January. Though the headline 193,000 increase in payrolls during January came in below expectations of a 250,000 improvement, upward revisions to previous months' data took it towards the more optimistic forecasts. Also dampening the initial dollar-negative reaction was the news that the US unemployment rate fell to a 5-year low of 4.7 pct in January and a 0.4 pct increase in hourly wages, ahead of forecasts of a 0.3 pct gain. The market read the data as suggesting that the US labour market is strong enough to keep another interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve in March on the cards. As a result, the euro fell to a seven-week low of 1.1950 usd. Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, said this follow-through buying may push the euro down towards 1.1930 usd. But he thinks the dollar's uptrend "is unlikely to move any further than that and markets should then enter a period of consolidation." Bar US trade data on Friday, there's little on the economic calendar to prompt a renewed break out from current levels, analysts said. "With the calendar for the upcoming week notable only for the lack of any material releases, bar a modest narrowing of the trade deficit, the tone for the week could easily reflect the lingering impact of the further acceleration in (US) wages," said Daragh Maher, senior FX strategist at CALYON, who expects the Fed funds rate to hit 5.0 pct by the end of June from the current 4.50 pct. "For now, although 1.20 usd should provide good support for the euro, the strength in US wages growth will keep any bargain hunters nervous about buying the euro too aggressively against the dollar at these levels," he added. In the last few months, the euro has rallied against the dollar on a growing market view that the yield-supporting factors that helped the US currency rally in 2005 may have run their course, with the European Central Bank poised for another hike and the Fed seemingly about to pause. The ECB's president Jean-Claude Trichet all but confirmed last week that the bank will raise rates another quarter point in March. The ECB raised its key refi rate in December to 2.25 pct, its first hike in over five years. Elsewhere, the pound was steady against the euro despite weekend press talk of a weak retail survey from the British Retail Consortium tomorrow.

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