3 February 2006, 10:30  The dollar held near a seven-week high against the yen

The dollar held near a seven-week high against the yen on Friday, though currency moves were tentative as traders awaited a U.S. jobs report for clues about whether the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. The dollar had risen since the U.S. central bank bumped up its funds rate for the 14th straight time earlier in the week and signalled more rate rises were possible, though that was seen dependent on solid economic data. Traders said the market was looking to the U.S. non-farm payroll figures due at 1230 GMT for direction. The median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists is for the data to show 240,000 jobs were added in January. Forecasts were for as high as 300,000. "If such a strong figure comes out, the market will start to expect an additional rate hike after one in March," said Kota Kimura, manager of forex at Shinkin Central Bank. Many in the market see the Fed lifting rates to 4.75 percent in March from the current 4.5 percent, maintaining the dollar's rate advantage over the euro and the yen. By 0550 GMT, the dollar was little changed on the day at 118.50 yen , not far from a seven-week high of 118.66 yen hit on electronic trading platform EBS on Thursday. The euro was flat $1.2090 . The dollar had slipped against the euro and pared gains versus the yen on Thursday after U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte said al Qaeda was still plotting and preparing for attacks on the United States. Analysts and traders said the Tokyo market shrugged off Negroponte's comments given that the Department of Homeland Security said the United States had no plan at the moment to change the level of its terror threat alert. The euro was trading at 143.25 yen , not far from a seven-week high of 143.40 yen struck on Thursday and a lifetime peak of 143.62 yen marked in December. The yen was dented by continued strong demand for higher-yielding assets from investors in Japan, where interest rates are virtually zero, traders said. "It's hard to deny that capital outflows from Japan have been driving the yen's weakness," said Kikuko Takeda, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. ON THE JOBS Analysts and traders said the upcoming payrolls report could hurt the dollar if the data comes in below market expectations, given that more market players forecast strong figures than weak ones. "The dollar could fall sharply, though that may be only a temporary phenomenon," said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo. For clues about future Fed policy, other data were also on the market's radar including the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading for January at 1445 GMT and the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index for January at 1500 GMT. Market players will also look to the euro zone services PMI due at 0900 GMT to check the strength of the euro zone economy, analysts said. Economist expect the index to show a rise to 57 in January from 56.8 a month earlier. An improvement in the data could reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank is poised to raise interest rates in March, traders said. The ECB left its key rate unchanged at 2.25 percent at Thursday's policy-setting meeting, as expected. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told a news conference after the decision that the central bank had not embarked on a series of rate increases, but added that expectations for future rate moves were reasonable.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved