21 February 2006, 12:09  The US dollar held on to early gains

The US dollar held on to early gains but was hemmed within narrow 20-point ranges against the yen and the euro in the latter half of the Asian session, dealers said Yesterday's holiday in the US seemed to have set the mood for a lackluster Asian market today, although the dollar managed to chalk up small gains at the start of the day The greenback found its gains constrained by expectations that future US interest rate hikes have been fully priced in, leading to speculation players were looking for better levels to sell, dealers said Dollar-yen made an early climb to 118.62 yen after a break of yesterday's 118.30/37 highs triggered some stop loss buying. The move faltered when exporter offers reportedly near 118.80 yen appeared and drove the pair back down Through the afternoon dollar-yen was stuck in a 20-point band between 118.43 and 118.63 yen, while euro-yen was also trapped between 141.30 and 141.42 yen "While exporter offers are capping dollar-yen, Japanese retail investors continue to pour funds into high-yielding paper, keeping the yen crosses and dollar-yen supported," said UBS currency dealers. "We would buy dips and target Friday's highs near 118.90 yen." Euro-dollar, meanwhile, touched a low of 1.1913 usd in sluggish Asian trade after some weak stops were triggered under 1.1920 usd. Bids by UK names lifted the pair to 1.1925 usd before it subsequently found itself hemmed in between 1.1920 and 1.1933 usd through the afternoon In the medium-term, the pair looks likely to continue to ply a 1.1850 and 1.2150 usd range unless the European Central Bank signals more interest rate increases beyond the one expected in March, dealers said "The ECB rate hike on March 2nd is considered a done deal," said analysts at DBS Bank. "The support that it provides the euro will be limited as long as the ECB remains ambiguous about future rate intentions." The outlook on the Fed's policy direction has become almost as cloudy now, dealers said, with little fresh hints expected from tonight's release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting Most analysts believe the message will be similar to what Fed officials have been saying, that is, while future interest rate hikes may still be needed, a lot now depends on US data readings "Dollar bulls would need evidence of more than the two Fed hikes already discounted by the market to extend the currency's uptrend," DBS Bank analysts said. "We doubt that the minutes will deviate much from (Fed chairman) Bernanke's testimony last week," they added. "Instead of looking for more US rate hikes, watch for signs that the Fed is about to end its 'one hike per meeting' cycle." Beyond the FOMC minutes, US CPI data due tomorrow could also provide some idea of the inflationary position in the US and as such will be just as closely scrutinized. According to a survey by Market New International, the CPI is expected to rise 0.5 pct in January after a 0.1 pct fall in December, on a rebound in energy prices following declines in the previous three months.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved