20 February 2006, 17:55  Dollar confined to tight ranges due to US holiday

The dollar was confined to narrow ranges against the euro and the yen in quiet trade due to the public holiday in the US, while the pound was firmer following stronger-than-expected UK public finances data and solid mortgage lending numbers. The US currency failed to make much headway after falling to a 10-day low against the European currency overnight. The euro remained firmly above the 1.19 usd level, with analysts saying that the dollar could be set to remain on the backfoot. "Though trading is likely to be limited today by the public holiday in the US, we expect the dollar to stay offered," said UBS currency analyst Mansoor Mohi-uddin. With the market now expecting two rate hikes in the US and after sentiment became "too one way on the dollar" last week, the currency is again vulnerable to disappointing US data, he argued. This was borne out on Friday when the dollar failed to gain on the release of stronger-than-expected producer prices data but a subsequent weaker-than-expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment index "triggered a flood of dollar selling", Mohi-uddin noted. Attention will now turn to Wednesday's CPI inflation data out of the US, while the euro could start to gain as market participants anticipate a further rate hike by the European Central Bank on March 2. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet testifies before the European Parliament economic and monetary affairs committee later this afternoon. Meanwhile, this week will see a string of key business sentiment indicators out of Europe, including the German Ifo survey on Thursday. Elsewhere, the pound was firmer following stronger-than-expected UK public finances data, as well as strong mortgage lending figures. A survey released overnight by property website Rightmove also found that UK property asking prices rose at their fastest rate in nearly two years in February. Though they are generally seen as second-tier data, overall today's figures lessen the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates any time soon, analysts said. "This set of public and household data should not have much influence on the financial markets but at the margin should be treated as on the hawkish side for interest rates," said John Butler at HSBC.

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