6 January 2006, 15:14  Oil breaks 63 usd supported

Oil prices broke above the 63 usd level, supported by strong demand for gasoline, renewed buying interest from funds, cold weather in Europe and concerns about geo-political tensions in the Middle East. At 11.22 am, February-dated Brent futures contracts were up 65 cents at 61.78 usd a barrel, while US benchmark February-dated contracts were up 44 cents at 63.25 usd. Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish said the market, which was until recently fixated on the "bearish" weather outlook, has changed track and is re-assessing the broader fundamentals. These include violence in Iraq, which is leading to significant export problems, Iran's decision to resume atomic fuel research and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's failing health and impending political demise. Demand for gasoline is likewise strong - overall supplies are below year-ago levels and are tight in terms of days cover, sparking concerns demand will outstrip supply when US motorists take to the road in the summer. Yesterday, data released by the US Energy Information Administration showed refinery utilisation rose 1 pct to 89.9 pct of capacity, but remained 4.9 pct lower than the same period last year. While the data also showed a surprise week-on-week rise in distillate and gasoline stocks, analysts stressed overall gasoline stock levels were below average for the time of year while distillates were average despite low demand. Demand for distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 10 pct last week on account of the warmer than usual weather across the US, which is scheduled to continue for the next 10 days. Sucden analyst Sam Tilley said ordinarily ample crude stocks in the US - which are 12.5 pct above year-ago levels according to EIA data - and rising gasoline and distillate supplies would be enough to push prices lower. However, "geo-political factors, the technical momentum and the cold weather in Europe look like being enough at the moment to keep prices firm", he said. Oil prices have risen more than 10 pct over the past week alone, while last year they increased by almost 40 pct.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved