6 January 2006, 13:31  Dollar steady ahead of crucial US jobs news

The dollar remained steady at recent lows ahead of this afternoon's closely-watched US jobs report for December. Analysts said the non-farm payrolls data will be crucial in the market's assessment of how many more rate hikes the US Federal Reserve has up its sleeve. Yesterday's news that weekly jobless claims in the last week of 2005 fell by 35,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 291,000, the lowest in over five years, cemented expectations that today's report will show job creation of over 200,000 during the month. "December job gains well above the consensus would suggest that the economy has weathered energy price shocks quite well," said Mike Carey, senior analyst at CALYON. "This will imply that the FOMC's concerns over potential resource utilization constraints will remain in play and additional rate hikes may be needed to avoid overheating but a below-consensus print, however, would support the end-of-easing scenario," he added. Expectations of an imminent easing in US policy were fuelled earlier this week when the minutes to the last Fed rate-setting meeting were interpreted as suggesting that the US rate cycle may soon be coming to an end. According to the minutes from the Fed's December meeting, at which the key Fed funds rate was raised for a 13th straight time to 4.25 pct, most members agreed "the number of additional firming steps required probably would not be large". The dollar was buoyed for most of 2005, following a three-year downturn, by a growing focus on interest rate developments around the world, and finished the year nearly 15 pct up against its chief rivals, the euro and the yen. There is now a growing market view that the yield-supporting factors that helped the dollar rally may have run their course, especially with the European Central Bank poised to raise borrowing costs again in the months to come, given the strong data flow emerging from the 12-nation single currency zone. In early December, the central bank raised its key refi rate a quarter point to 2.25 pct, its first hike in over five years. "The dollar sell-off earlier this week has stabilised for now but sentiment remains biased to further losses, with the market adopting an asymmetrical approach to data releases, as positive outcomes seem incapable of generating much dollar strength," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank Corporates & Markets.

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