3 January 2006, 10:58  Softer dollar makes subdued start to 2006

The dollar made a subdued start to the new year in Asia on Tuesday, weakening a tad against the euro and yen, as holidays in Japan, China and New Zealand kept away many traders and investors. At 0128 GMT the dollar was at 117.80 yen against Friday's close of 117.96. The euro (EUR=) was at $1.1838 compared with $1.1825 in New York. The dollar ended 2005 trading on Friday with its biggest annual gain against the euro since 1999 and the sharpest rise against the yen in at least 22 years. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar had its best year since 1997, rising by 13 percent. Some analysts said the U.S. currency could gain further ground in the first half of 2006 for the same reasons it outperformed global currencies last year -- a sustained rise in U.S. benchmark interest rates compared with lower rates in Europe and ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan. Currency moves this week could be unreliable indicators of trends for the year since thin trading volumes are likely to exacerbate the impact of a few trades, they said. "The moves this morning reflect a simple lack of liquidity and normal trading is unlikely to begin again until next week or so," said Ashley Davies, Singapore-based currency strategist at Swiss bank UBS. "So, no, I wouldn't read too much into moves this week." In a note, UBS said it expects the dollar to continue to trade higher in the early part of 2006. It expects the euro/dollar to explore the lower end of the bank's projected $1.16-$1.22 per euro range and forecast the yen would drop toward its one-month target of 122 per dollar. "We remain long dollar/yen from 116.70 heading into the New Year," - Davies wrote. A string of economic data this week from the United States could set the tone for currencies in the coming weeks.

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