24 January 2006, 11:46  Ex-BOJ Taya: BOJ may end easy policy around spring

The BOJ is expected to keep short-term interest rates near zero after ending quantitative easing. Taya said, "It is unlikely that the BOJ will remove the zero-rate policy within a few months after scrapping the quantitative easing." But he added that the central bank may raise short-term interest rates, such as the unsecured overnight call rate, to 0.25% around autumn. "I think on-year change in the core CPI will increase after summer and the BOJ will be confident of CPI stability at that time," Taya said. The BOJ vows to keep its easy policy until on-year change in the core CPI is stable above zero, and has said conditions for ending the easy policy will be met toward next fiscal year starting in April. Taya said the BOJ may want to raise short-term interest rates quickly due to several concerns over the impact of the ultra-easy policy. Quantitative easing continues to restrict the normal function of the money market, and the BOJ is worried about the impact of a prolonged easy policy on asset prices, which have showed signs of rising recently, Taya said. Taya said there is the possibility that the BOJ will announce a desirable inflationary rate level, such as 1%-2%, as a benchmark for future monetary policy. But "the BOJ doesn't want to do it because the central bank has no tool for achieving such a goal," Taya said. As for the economy, Taya said that Japan can achieve economic growth in the mid-2% range next fiscal year, which is above its potential economic growth rate. "Private firms are still cautious about capital investment, compared with their high profits. But their spending remains solid and the uptrend will continue," Taya said, adding a brisk corporate performance is filtering down to the housing sector through increased wages. The BOJ Friday upgraded its economic assessment for January from December. "Japan's economy is recovering steadily," the BOJ said in its monthly economic report for January, adding the word "steadily" to its December assessment, in its first upgrade to a monthly report since September. It was also the first time since the burst of the bubble economy in the early 1990s that the Bank used "steadily" to describe the economy's recovery and signaled the central bank's increased confidence in improving production, wages and personal spending. On the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Taya expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate to 4.75% in March to slow surging housing starts. The Fed is expected to lift the rate to 4.50% at the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved