12 January 2006, 10:56  Dollar dips before ECB meet, US deficit data

The dollar inched closer to three-month lows against the yen and the euro on Thursday as investors braced for a European Central Bank policy meeting and U.S. trade data that could clear the way for more dollar selling. Most market players expect the ECB to leave its lending rate at 2.25 percent when it meets later in the day. But traders said the euro could get a lift if President Jean-Claude Trichet hints at future monetary tightening in his post-meeting comments at 1330 GMT. U.S. trade figures, also due at 1330 GMT, could open the floodgates to more dollar selling if the deficit is wider than expected, traders said. "Investors are getting anxious about holding long dollar positions," said Takehiko Jimbo, forex manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. Speculation about rising euro zone rates comes amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon put the brakes on its own 18-month cycle of rate rises. Such expectations have helped to push the dollar down around 2.5 percent against the euro and 3 percent versus the yen so far in 2006. Dollar sentiment has been bruised since the start of the year after minutes from the Fed's last meeting suggested the central bank was near the end of its tightening campaign, and some dealers said more dollar losses could be in store. "A lot of people are expecting more dollar weakness, and this could be triggered by a widening U.S. trade deficit and any indication that the ECB could lift rates soon," said a trader at a Japanese bank.

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