19 December 2005, 11:44  Forex: Dollar, euro claw back some lost ground vs yen in late Asian trade

The dollar and the euro took advantage of a slightly softer yen to reclaim some lost ground, ending the Asian day near their best levels against the Japanese unit, dealers said Concerns that the US Federal Reserve is close to ending its rate hike cycle and unwinding of yen carry positions paired up to drive the dollar down to 115.50 yen earlier, its lowest since late October while the euro marked a low of 138.90 yen against the yen this morning "As long as the Fed is seen nearing the end of its hike cycle, yield carry trades involving yen against higher yielding currencies will unwind," strategists at Singapore's DBS Bank said. But the dollar and the euro managed to make a weak recovery, though the overall tone for the dollar remains generally negative, as technically-driven demand for euro-yen pulled the cross back up above 140.00 yen in late Asian trade With the Christmas holidays looming and the year-end following soon after, market liquidity has thinned out considerably and players are being very cautious for fear of getting burned by the potentially sharp moves in such a market As such, many players focused on closing out their positions and keeping positions square before the traditionally slow year-end holiday period begins Dollar-yen initially slipped but then shot up to 116.20 yen, after some stop losses were triggered above 116.00. The pair continued to rise to 116.40 but could not extend the gains very far beyond the New York high last Friday of around 116.50 For the pair, the key pivot is expected around 114.60-115.00 yen, the site of various peaks from October before the big breakout rally over 120.00 A move below 114.60 yen would suggest that dollar-yen may be gravitating back to the 110.00-115.00 range that contained the pair during the summer months Earlier today, the euro-yen made a move up toward 139.60 soon after the Tokyo fix and subsequently broke above 140.00 in the afternoon to mark a 140.08 high taking the euro-dollar up to 1.2025 usd from its 1.2008 morning low. From here, the euro-dollar's downside appears firm at 1.2000 usd while any further rebound will likely be limited to 1.2040-50 usd, where offers are said to be placed Despite thinning activity going into the Christmas holidays, there are some key US data releases due this week which have the potential to add to the unwinding of speculative long dollar positions

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