3 November 2005, 17:43  Dollar firm; ECB comment, U.S. data back rate scenario

The dollar gained against its major counterparts Thursday as U.S. data offered little to refute bets for higher Federal Reserve interest rates. At the same time, a lack of inflation alarm in the initial post-policy meeting statement from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet tossed some cold water on currency market expectations for higher euro-zone interest rates, which some thought might come as soon as next month. Trichet's statement followed the bank's decision earlier Thursday to hold interest rates at 2%, as was widely expected. But an increasing number of economists and analysts thought the inflation evidence might be stacked in favor of a rate hike as soon as December or early next year. Trichet continued to stress "strong" vigilance against upside risks to inflation, but also said there wasn't evidence of domestic inflationary pressures building up. For now, the dollar is underpinned by the interest-rate advantage it holds over the euro and the yen - Japanese rates at effectively zero aren't seen moving until deep into 2006 at the soonest. The Fed earlier this week raised its interest-rate target for a 12th straight time to 4%, the highest since June 2001. At last check, the euro stood at $1.2008 compared to $1.2045 before the data and Trichet's statement and compared to $1.2072 late Wednesday. The dollar rose to 116.92 yen compared to an unchanged 116.88 yen before the reports. The dollar is up 0.1% against its Japanese counterpart. The dollar, trading at two-year highs against the yen, remains so far capped below 117 yen, an area believed fortified with options barriers. The dollar extended its gains against the euro and the yen in a somewhat delayed reaction to U.S. economic data. A drop in jobless claims pointed to a strong U.S. employment report on Friday that presumably would back more Federal Reserve rate hikes. A second report showed strong productivity gains and a drop in unit labor costs but likely wouldn't convince the Fed to pause its tightening campaign. The currency market was awaiting the European Central Bank press conference after the bank held rates steady at 2% earlier Thursday. Also on tap is a Capitol Hill appearance from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan

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