10 November 2005, 10:38  The Bank of England is poised to keep borrowing costs unchanged

The Bank of England is poised to keep borrowing costs unchanged when it concludes its next rate-setting meeting today as worries over above-target inflation offset concerns over the level of economic growth. All 32 forecasters polled by AFX News expect the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee to leave the key repo rate at 4.50 pct both in November and in December. A number of them had been predicting another cut this month before a set of solid activity data over the last couple of weeks coincided with hawkish rhetoric from policy makers on inflation "With GDP growth 0.5 percentage below, and CPI inflation half percentage point above, the central projections in the August Inflation Report, Novembers MPC meeting was shaping up to yield another knife-edge interest rate decision," said Ross Walker, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. "The revelation of an absence of any discussion about a rate cut in October, stronger-than-expected retail sales data, rising global inflation concerns and less dovish rhetoric from the MPC's 'swing voter' Richard Lambert means we don't expect any fireworks this month and look for base rates to be left at 4 pct," he added. Though there is unanimity about the outlook for borrowing costs over the coming two months, the forecasting community is divided about what the MPC will do next year A number still think that interest rates have further to fall as the Bank revises down its growth forecast in the upcoming Inflation Report in response to subdued consumption data. By February's projections, they also anticipate the inflation profile to be more benign as lower energy costs feed through into prices. James Knightley, economist at ING Barings, is predicting a further 50 basis point cut in the first quarter of 2006 as consumer spending stays soft, manufacturing remains mired in recession, the housing market fails to provide any support and lower crude prices diminish inflation concerns Others, like Richard Jeffrey at Bridgewell Securities, think the next move in interest rates will be up. "We remain firmly of the view that the consumer economy will show a marked increase in momentum during the final quarter," he said, noting the improved conditions reported in this weeks' CIPS surveys into the manufacturing and services sectors "While the consensus view is that interest rates are set to fall further, we believe the next move will be upwards," he added.

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