7 October 2005, 11:42   US dollar rangebound vs euro

The US dollar was trading in narrow ranges towards the end of the Asian session amid the pressure of persistent unwinding of long dollar positions after the euro's sharp rally yesterday. At 2.27 pm (0627 GMT) here, the dollar was at 113.40 yen, up from 113.34 yen nearly three hours earlier in Tokyo. The euro was at 1.2176 usd, up from 1.2169 in Tokyo. The dollar had declined overnight after more hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet after the ECB's expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.00 pct. Trichet said: "All the elements we have indicated that risks to price stability are on the upside. We will move if needed at any time." This apparently gave players already eager for any excuse to sell the dollar more reason to exit their long dollar positions. As a result, the euro rose to 1.2205 usd from 1.1960 usd. "Given the scale of the selling over the past 48 hours, some consolidation is only to be expected, but the dollar should extend its decline once this is past," said a strategist at UBS. The euro gave back some gains in early Asian trading, but remained supported in the 1.2100 usd area as players positioned for today's release of US non-farm payrolls data for September. "The market appears to be quite confused as to where to take the US dollar and in that context tonight's non-farm payrolls will be important, despite the heavy distortions from Hurricane Katrina," said UBS AG forex strategist Ashley Davies in a note. According to a Market News International survey of economists, non-farm payrolls are expected to fall 150,000, a turnaround from a 169,000 rise in August, with the impact of Hurricane Katrina the wild card in the forecasts. "Doubtless to say, the headline change in payroll employment could well be almost fully discounted, unless it is really out of left field," a National Australia Bank currency strategist said in a note.

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