6 October 2005, 10:56  BoE poised to keep repo rate on hold at 4.50 pct

The Bank of England is poised to keep borrowing costs unchanged when it concludes its next rate-setting meeting today All 27 forecasters polled by AFX News expect the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee to leave the key repo rate at 4.50 pct even after a raft of disappointing economic data, particularly on the economic growth front. Official figures showed that the UK economy is growing at a 12-year low, at least on an annual basis while the Confederation of British Industry revealed pessimism among retailers at its lowest ebb for 22 years. "With City economists fully lined up behind unchanged rates, a move this month is scarcely imaginable," said Geoff Dicks, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland As a result, the market's attention is focusing more on the November meeting of the MPC when the central bank publishes its quarterly economic forecasts. The findings of the Inflation Report will likely dominate the November meeting, which is the most likely date this year for a further cut "The critical issue facing the MPC is the strength of oil prices and whether household inflation expectations and wage growth respond," said John Butler, economist at HSBC. "For now the MPC is closely monitoring the issue and while they await the economic implications it is a reason to delay the next move in rates," he added. Analysts also noted the rate-setting meeeting, which started yesterday, is likely to have discussed the sharp depreciation in the value of the pound since the last meeting, which would work against a rate cut.

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