3 October 2005, 12:04  BOJ Nakahara:Should Keep Easy Policy Until CPI Positive

Nakahara, considered a dovish member among the nine policy makers, has emphasized the view that the central bank should not lower the account balance target until the conditions of ending the quantitative easing are fully met. Nakahara reiterated that he believes lowering the liquidity target before the conditions for ending quantitative easing are met will tarnish the central bank's trust in the market. "We have raised the liquidity target saying these are additional easing steps. Then lowering it would carry momentum in the direction of tightening," Nakahara said. He said the liquidity level, which is now above Y30 trillion, should be lowered gradually once the quantitative policy ends, but the BOJ should keep short-term rates near zero until the liquidity level falls down to the required reserve level of around Y5 trillion. "For how long we will need to keep zero rates after the liquidity has come down to the required reserve level, we need to judge according to our economic assessment then," Nakahara said. Once the policy is normalized, or returns to a policy based on interest rates, the BOJ should set a "preferable rate of price increases," Nakahara said. He added it shouldn't be regarded as an inflation-targeting policy. By having a preferable level of inflation, it acts as an anchor for inflation expectations when Japan is under pressure of falling back into deflation, Nakahara said. Japan's inflation risks aren't as high as deflation risks, he added. Nakahara also said the BOJ should keep the quantitative easing if technical and special factors push up the CPI. "I don't think the bar toward ending the quantitative policy is low," Nakahara said. As for the BOJ's direct JGB purchases, Nakahara said "this is a heavier issue than ending the quantitative easing itself," suggesting there may be a great difficulty or harsh resistance toward scrapping it. Nakahara didn't elaborate on this issue, saying "it is too early to discuss," but said the BOJ will need to take "realistic" action. In the risk and outlook report due at the end of October, the BOJ will likely upgrade its view on the economy as the economy is exceeding the growth scenario that the BOJ laid down in April, Nakahara said. However, touching on the quarterly tankan business sentiment survey released this morning, Nakahara said it is overall good but shows that companies are remaining cautious. He also said that while "the economy is almost out of its lull," as the information-technology sector's adjustments have almost finished, IT-sector activity still needs to be watched carefully.

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