While the most dire predictions have been largely dismissed as alarmist -- gasoline prices in the U.S. of up to $6 a gallon and crude oil climbing to $105 a barrel in 2007 -- analysts warn consumers could face new price spikes and won't soon be returning to pump prices that propelled the popularity of gas-guzzling SUVs.The consensus is that the era of cheap oil for U.S. consumers, accustomed to some of the lowest prices in the industrialized world, is over, at least for the next few years. "We have very little spare capacity internationally to provide enough crude oil to the system to tolerate any more of these types of disruptions," said Ken Miller, an analyst with the Houston-based consultancy Purvin & Gertz. Price surges over the past couple of years were in part driven by headline-grabbing factors, ranging from the Iraq war, the rampaging insurgency in that country and unrest in Nigeria and other global hotspots central to international oil production. But the impact of hurricanes Rita and Katrina brought into sharper focus the tenuous supply and demand balance in the United States and rekindled debate about how it would affect consumer driving patterns. Рreliminary indications are that U.S. consumer demand for gasoline cooled slightly in the face of high prices further inflated by the aftereffects of Rita and Katrina. Americans are simply not as used to high gasoline prices as are Europeans, for example, who have learned to conserve more as a result of hefty government taxes at the pumps. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last week that compared to the same period in 2004, gasoline demand fell by 2.2 percent. Traders and analysts, however, warn that many may be overestimating consumer reaction to high prices. "There's a perception that this demand destruction is going to continue," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "But I think that people are being a little bit overly optimistic." The EIA, the Energy Department's statistics arm, said while global petroleum demand growth may have fallen from 3.2 percent in 2004, it is still projected to average 1.8 percent in 2005 and 2006, based largely on continued growth in Asian markets, tight refining capacity and a lack of new oil to match rising demand. "I don't think anybody anticipated the huge growth in demand for 2004," said the EIA's Dave Costello. "That, of course, was part of the problem."