25 October 2005, 13:16  Euro boosted by strong German Ifo survey

Тhe euro strengthened against major currencies, pushing back above the 1.20 usd mark, following this morning's stronger-than-expected German Ifo business confidence survey. The Ifo Institute announced this morning that its business climate index rose to 98.7 in October from 96.0 in September, the highest reading since October 2000 and well above forecasts for a very slim rise to just 96.1. The news suggests that Europe's largest economy is holding up much better than many had hoped and will encourage policy-makers at the European Central Bank who have recently indicated that an interest rate hike may be on the cards. "The data will give further support to the ECB's upbeat outlook for the EMU economy, whilst helping to solidify expectations of higher interest rates," said CALYON analyst Mitul Kotecha. "The outcome came as a surprise and reflects improving prospects for the German economy, with both the current and expectations components registering solid gains," he added. Meanwhile, the dollar remained broadly firm following last night's announcement that Ben Bernanke will replace Alan Greenspan when he steps down as head of the Federal Reserve. Though Bernanke's appointment came as no surprise it was greeted positively by the market, while continued falls in the oil price and strong US corporate earnings result have all helped to keep the dollar on a firm footing. "Lower oil prices, strong earnings growth and the announcement that White House chief economic advisor Ben Bernanke will succeed Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board have combined to spark a dollar positive shift in underlying asset markets," said HBOS analyst Steve Pearson. Bernanke "has impressive credentials" and has pledged continuity in terms of approach, he said. However, strong US consumer confidence data this afternoon will be needed for the dollar to continue rising, he argued. The market consensus is for the Conference Board's October consumer confidence index to have risen to around 89 from 86.6 in September.

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