21 October 2005, 15:23  German govt cuts 2005, 2006 GDP growth outlook as higher oil price burdens

The German government said its GDP growth forecast for next year has been slashed to 1.2 pct from 1.6 pct previously as oil prices rose significantly higher and the duration of increases was longer than originally expected, confirming yesterday's report from sources. The growth band has now been set to 1.0-1.5 pct rate compared with the previous 1.5-2 pct range, it said. This year, it held on to the range set last spring at 0.75-1.25 pct GDP growth but reduced the forecast of GDP growth to 0.8 pct from the 1.0 pct rate used as the basis for its economic policy decisions. It said for the first-half of next year particularly, the economic recovery could be dampened as a consequence of higher oil prices but that the general economic climate would remain "favourable". It said "substantial" growth contributions from external trade are expected for next year. The average number of those with jobs could increase by 85,000 this year and by 230,000 next year. The forecasts are used as a basis for the government estimates of tax revenues due to be drawn up on Nov 2-3.

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