21 October 2005, 14:48  Pound edges up as UK Q3 GDP comes in line with expectations

The pound nudged higher in modest fashion to hit 2-week highs against the dollar after UK third quarter GDP data came in roughly as forecast. In its preliminary estimate of economic growth for the three months to end-September, the office of National Statistics revealed that UK GDP grew by 0.4 pct from the previous quarter, in line with expectations. On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew by 1.6 pct, higher than the consensus forecast of 1.5 pct. The numbers, while hardly strong, are not weak enough to spell out the case for an interest rate reduction in November. Since the start of the week, the pound has been making broad based gains amid evidence of rising UK inflation, stronger than expected retail sales growth and a batch of relatively upbeat housing market data. But as Daragh Maher at CALYON pointed out, the growth rates in the third quarter are clearly below the long term average. The data also indicates that slow growth levels will temper inflationary pressures. "However, given the Bank of England's apparent wariness about the accuracy of this initial estimate, it is questionable whether it will have much of a bearing on policy decisions in the near-term," Maher added. As things stand, short sterling contracts assume no change in interest rates for the foreseeable future. At 9.52 am, the pound was at 1.7783 usd from 1.7765 usd ahead of the GDP data. The euro, meanwhile, slipped to 0.6770 stg from 0.6777 stg.

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