20 October 2005, 12:29   Dollar modestly higher as US stays on course for rate hikes

The dollar rose slightly against the euro, yen and pound after the Fed's Beige book gave a clean bill of health for the US economy. In trading yesterday, the dollar pushed the euro close to its lowest level this year while the yen set a series of two-year lows. Some light profit taking then took the US currency off highs but the dollar has since regained some poise. Steve Pearson at HBOS noted that the Beige book, released overnight, is consistent with further hikes in US interest rates. "The Beige Book summary of economic conditions ahead of the Nov 1 FOMC meeting points to a moderate pace of expansion with price pressures picking up in many regions," he said. "It is therefore consistent with the currently discounted profile for the Fed Funds Target Rate rates at 4.25 pct by year-end," he noted. With two more meetings to go, the benchmark rate stands at 3.75 pct. But it will take further strength in key indicators for the interest rate market to price in additional hikes in 2006 and to give the dollar more support,said Pearson. Analysts believe that while expectations of higher US interest rates and attractive US Treasury yields are keeping investors fixated on the dollar, some doubts have begun to creep in about how much longer this can last. Looking ahead, the Philadelphia Fed survey of sentiment due out late this afternoon may be key as it will provide a snapshot of confidence levels in October. In the meantime, the dollar is not likely to be able to push the euro under 1.19 usd and range-bound trading looks set to persist, said Pearson at HBOS. Elsewhere, the pound was steady ahead of a raft of UK data. The pick of the lot is likely to be the retail sales numbers for September where modest gains from the previous month is expected. The UK currency got a modest lift yesterday as expectations of a Bank of England interest rate reduction diminished following the publication of the minutes to the last rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Analysts said the minutes more or less ruled out the prospect of another rate cut this year as the nine-member panel appears more worried about costs than weak demand.

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