19 October 2005, 10:51  Dollar strong as Fed vows to beat back inflation

The dollar hovered near a two-year high against the yen on Wednesday after another top Federal Reserve official signaled interest rates would rise further to stem the threat of inflation accelerating. Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said late on Tuesday the energy price surge following hurricanes Katrina and Rita had worsened the inflation outlook but the economic outlook remained solid. His comments came on the heels of a report showing spiking energy costs after the hurricanes drove up U.S. producer prices in September by the biggest amount in 15 years. Data last week showed consumer prices jumped by the most in 25 years the same month. Another policy maker, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, said the central bank would not repeat the policy mistakes of the 1970s that led to a bout of hyper-inflation. The Fed's repeated vows to keep raising rates and limit the inflation fallout from soaring energy prices has helped revive the dollar's rally this year. Markets widely see the Fed pushing rates higher at its final two meetings this year, taking the fed funds rate to 4.25 percent from the current 3.75 percent. More economists see the Fed lifting rates as high as 5 percent next year. At least three more Fed officials are slated to speak on the U.S. economy later in the day, including New York Fed President Timothy Geithner. Also helping to put investors at ease about the massive U.S. deficits, U.S. Treasury figures showed foreigners bought a net $91.3 billion of U.S. securities in August, showing the country is having little trouble for now funding its current account gap. "All the data and news is dollar positive," said Rick Lloyd, head of G11 currency trading at ABN Amro in Sydney. "The dollar's looking pretty well bid." At 0530 GMT, the dollar changed hands around 115.80 yen , near a 25-month peak of 115.94 yen hit a day earlier. The euro fetched 138.20 yen, in sight of a two-month peak around 138.70 yen struck on Tuesday. Voracious Japanese demand for higher-yielding foreign bonds has swamped the yen, overshadowing widespread confidence Japan's economy is set for sustained growth that has sparked big overseas buying of Tokyo shares. Analysts say greater hedging of yen currency risk by foreigners holding Tokyo stocks, combined with greater unhedged purchases of foreign bonds by big Japanese institutional investors, may be the main factor behind the yen's abrupt slide. In interviews with Reuters, some of Japan's top life insurers have said they see the dollar strengthening further against the yen and plan to buy more foreign bonds without currency hedging. "They're still very much attracted to foreign assets," said Sharada Selvanathan, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore. The single European currency fell 0.2 percent to $1.1935, in sight of a three-month low below $1.19. ABN Amro's Lloyd said the key test for the dollar was whether it could break through resistance against the euro around $1.1860/70, the single currency's low for the year hit in July. "That will confirm a dollar up-move is in place," he said. FED SUPPORT The Fed's 15-month campaign of credit tightening has contrasted with other major central banks and heightened the dollar's allure, with rates in the euro zone stuck at 2 percent for more than two years and rates in Japan at virtually zero. Even though both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are increasingly seen as likely to raise rates next year, they will stay below overnight U.S. rates. The appeal of rising overnight rates for currencies was underscored after the Canadian dollar gained on the Bank of Canada's widely expected decision to raise rates to 3 percent from 2.75 percent. The BOC has said the economy was running close to full capacity and it would have to tighten policy further.

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