19 October 2005, 09:39  Oil prices fall below 63 usd as storm veers away from US Gulf region

Oil prices fell below 63 usd a barrel in Asian trade on forecasts Tropical Storm Wilma may miss hurricane-battered platforms and refineries in the southern United States, dealers said. At 12.20 pm (0420 GMT), New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November was at 62.80 usd a barrel, down 40 cents from its close of 63.20 in the US yesterday. Prices retreated 1.29 usd in New York yesterday after Wilma changed direction towards the Florida coast and away from production platforms and refineries still recovering from the damage inflicted by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. "Now that Wilma does not look like it's going to strike the US refineries, traders are taking profit," said Victor Shum, an analyst with US-based energy consultancy Purvin and Gertz in Singapore. "Prices were really driven up due to concerns over Wilma but now it looks likely that the storm will not (head) for the Gulf of Mexico." Oil prices have fallen over 5 pct since the start of the month but Shum said concerns over low stockpiles of distillates ahead of the northern hemisphere winter season could cause prices to rise again. "Longer-term concerns about winter-time fuel supply is likely to put (pressure) on prices so the downward correction won't be very significant," he said. "Traders will certainly look at the inventory report out of the US on Wednesday and the expectation is that crude oil inventories will continue to build but gasoline and distillates will drop." Shum said the focus will be on distillate inventories which are already in the lower half of the average range this time of the year. Distillates are mostly used for heating fuel during winter. The problem is exacerbated by the continued shutdown of refineries in the US Gulf Coast due to damage from the two previous hurricanes. "In November, it could get cold in the US northeast. With some of the Gulf of Mexico refineries still shut down, the concern would be if there is an early cold snap and this would put a tight squeeze on heating oil supplies," Shum said. Oil refineries in the heart of US Gulf region have yet to recover from Katrina in late August and Rita about three weeks later. After Katrina, crude hit a record 70.85 usd. According to the latest data, some 66 pct of crude and 55 pct of gas output from the area remain paralyzed, while six major refineries are still shut down. About 30 pct of total US crude production comes from the Gulf.

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