18 October 2005, 13:28  Pound falls, short sterling futures gain after UK inflation data

The pound fell against the dollar and the euro as figures showed the key CPI measure of inflation did not rise by as much as analysts had expected. UK CPI rose to 2.5 pct in September from 2.4 pct in August, official figures showed. While the figure is still well above the Bank of England's target rate of 2.0 pct, it came in below forecasts for a jump to 2.7 pct and leaves open the prospect for a rate cut in the coming months, especially if weak consumer spending indicators remain weak. "We believe the door is still ajar for an interest rate cut in November, although it is likely that the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, in particular, will want to see sustained evidence that underlying inflationary pressures remain contained before supporting such a move," said Howard Archer at Global Insight. The Bank of England is still likely to leave the benchmark repo rate unchanged in November but a cut could occur in December or early in the new year if growth remains muted and underlying inflationary pressures show signs of abating, he added. Against this backdrop, third-quarter GDP and retail sales numbers for September, both due later this week, will be key to shaping interest rate expectations. At 9.52 am, the pound was trading at 1.7470 usd, down from 1.7522 just before the data were released. The euro meanwhile rose to 0.6855 stg from 0.6837 previously.

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