12 October 2005, 12:22  The US dollar was firmer in late trade

The US dollar was firmer in late trade with market players betting that a scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan later today will add to the already hawkish tone US Federal Reserve officials have taken in recent weeks. Tonight, Greenspan will speak about economic flexibility in Washington, a day after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's September 20 meeting, which has kept the dollar well-bid in the last 24 hours. The minutes showed FOMC members believed long-term economic growth would not be affected by Hurricane Katrina but they voiced concern over increasing risks of inflation and continued to heavily favor interest rate hikes to counter that threat. "The tone of the minutes evidently suggests that the FOMC is more willing to extend its current tightening cycle on the presumption that US economic growth is able to absorb the cumulative increases in the target funds rate and withstand the negative impact of volatile and high energy prices," Thomas Lam, an economist at Singapore's United Overseas Bank said in a research note. Players will now look to Greenspan for further hints on how aggressive the Fed might be in its final two FOMC meetings for the year and perhaps for a glimpse of whether the rate hike cycle will continue into 2006. The euro continued to weaken against the dollar in Asian trade after sliding below 1.2000 usd last night with additional pressure coming from traders' concerns about Germany's new government and its ability to carry out economic reforms. By contrast, the dollar has been supported against the yen by the Fed's hawkish tone in its latest minutes, with the pair striking a fresh high for 2005 of 114.72 yen early in the Asian session. The pair backed off soon after and traded near 114.60, barely moving even after the Bank of Japan ended its monthly monetary policy meeting with a decision to keep policy unchanged, before it then slipped to 114.50. The US unit found renewed strength in the afternoon and climbed back up above 114.60 yen and is well-placed for an eventual test of its 2004 high of 114.88 and then 115.00 psychological resistance, dealers said. They added however that talk of an option expiry at 115 yen may prompt some protective selling ahead. "The dollar-yen should be bought on dips towards 114.30-50 yen with a stop below 114.20 for a break of the 115.00 option barriers, above which the entire market appears to have buy stops, all the way to 115.60," the UBS dealers said. US interest rates and fundamental economic issues will continue to dominate trade over the next few days, with international trade data due Thursday while the consumer price index is due on Friday "The theme of external imbalances could still resonate this week judging by the US dollar's price action last week in response to diversification fears, and in that context trade balance data for August on Thursday will be important," UBS AG forex strategist Ashley Davies said in a note. "Against that however, is the potential for a further tightening in Fed expectations should core inflation on Friday come out stronger than market expectations," Davies added. According to surveys by Market News International, the US trade gap is expected to widen to 59.6 bln usd on higher oil prices, though any impact from Katrina is likely to be modest. The CPI, on the other hand, is expected to rise 0.9 pct in September as the first full impact of Katrina is seen. Energy prices, particularly gasoline, surged in the month and will impact the headline number drastically, the MNI surveys showed. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.3 pct in September.

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