7 September 2005, 10:02  Japan July leading index falls to 50.0 from 63.6 in June

Japan's index of leading economic indicators fell to 50.0 in July from 63.6 in June, preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed. The market had expected the index to fall to 44.4, the average forecast of 18 brokerage and research houses polled by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Estimates ranged from 33.3 to 50.0. A reading above 50 points to economic expansion over the next six months, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The leading index is based on 12 indicators, of which data for 10 were available for the July preliminary reading, with five pointing toward expansion and five toward contraction. The coincident index, which measures the current state of the economy, fell to 22.2 from 100.0 in the previous month, falling for the first time below the boom-or-bust line in five months. The figure was in line with market expectations in a Nihon Keizai poll. Forecasts ranged from 22.2 to 33.3. The coincident index is based on 11 indicators, of which data for nine were available for the preliminary reading. Two indicators reflected expansion and seven suggested contraction. The lagging index dropped to 50 from 75. The figure was based on four of six indicators used to compute the index which reflects economic conditions three months earlier, with only one suggesting expansion.

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