16 September 2005, 12:43  Dollar edges higher vs yen, euro in late Asia trade ahead of US data

The US dollar edged higher in afternoon trade ahead of a host of important US economic data, including the Treasury International Capital Systems (TICS) data, due tonight. Other than the July TICS report, today's US data releases also include Q2 current account data and preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The data are expected to be closely scrutinized for any clues that might shed light on how the Federal Open Market Committee will respond at its meeting next Tuesday. Many analysts expect the Fed to continue with its cycle of modest hikes of its key rate, but others are less sure given worries over the impact on the US economy from Hurricane Katrina On the Q2 current account deficit, the consensus market estimate is for the deficit to narrow to 194.5 bln usd from a deficit of 195.1 bln in Q1. The TICS report showing foreign demand for U.S. long-term assets is expected to come in around 60 bln usd while the Michigan consumer sentiment report is expected to show a reading of 85.0, compared to the 89.1 seen in August. After a somewhat mixed bag of US data releases overnight, the euro-dollar ended the New York session around 1.2225 usd after failing to rise above 1.2240 and marking a low of 1.2192 usd with concerns about the weekend's elections in Germany still hanging over the European currency. "Having failed to push euro-dollar much below 1.2200 usd overnight, with persistent rumours of central bank bids in the 1.2170-90 usd area, the market took a shot at the pair's upside in Asia on Friday," UBS currency dealers said. The pair initially stayed between 1.2220 and 1.2240 usd in the early part of Asian trade and then moved steadily higher with European names seen on the bid. The rise was aided by stop-loss buying on the way with the move accelerating above 1.2270 usd up to its afternoon high of 1.230 This Sunday's German elections will see contender Angela Merkel, head of the CDU, square off against incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Polls this week suggested that Merkel's coalition is unlikely to get a clear majority and will therefore have to enter into a so-called "grand coalition" with Schroeder's SPD party, an outcome seen as euro negative as it could stall much needed economic reforms. However more of the market focus was on the slew of US data due tonight. The euro's gain against the yen also filtered through to the greenback giving it an early lift, though by the end of the morning session here, the pair had given back much of its overnight gains. The dollar-yen opened around 110.77 yen this morning and then moved up to 110.94. But the move faltered when the pair failed to break above 111.00 and triggered buy stops placed above.

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