14 September 2005, 14:59  Crude futures rise as traders buy ahead of U.S. petroleum stocks report

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday amid expectations that weekly U.S. petroleum stocks data due later in the day will show lower fuel inventories due to the production outages caused by Hurricane Katrina. Analysts suggested crude also was being buoyed by the recent rapid decline in prices -- with crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange now more than US$7 below the intraday high of US$70.85 reached Aug. 30. That, they said, could take the steam out of OPEC and other international efforts to cool markets and ultimately push prices back up. Light, sweet crude for October delivery gained 56 cents to US$63.67 a barrel by midday in Europe on the Nymex. Gasoline rose more than 2 cents to US$1.9120 a gallon (3.8 liters) and heating oil more than 1 1/2 cents to US$1.8555. October Brent crude futures on London's International Petroleum Exchange rose 39 cents to US$62.00 a barrel. Vienna's PVM Oil Associates said the recent drop in prices could indirectly drive oil higher because it "is likely to forestall any official measures by OPEC" -- such as a decision to raise production quotas when oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet in Vienna next Monday. Analysts predict the U.S. Department of Energy's petroleum supply report will report a 5 million to 7 million barrel drop in crude oil stocks because of shipping delays into the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, a key area for U.S. oil infrastructure. Gasoline inventory is expected to fall by 3 million to 6 million barrels because of the refinery outages, while heating oil stockpiles could drop by 1 million to 2 million barrels. "U.S. petroleum stock data would be one critical factor to determine near-term crude price direction," said Ken Hasegawa of Tokyo-based brokerage firm Himawari CX. But some analysts said the damage could be worse than estimated. "The market is closely watching out for the report as a way of seeing the progress that oil companies and refiners are making in getting their assets back online," said Mark Pervan, a commodities analyst with Daiwa Securities in Melbourne, Australia. "We won't see much selling before the report comes out, as the sentiment is that there could be a larger drop than expected," Pervan said.

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