14 September 2005, 12:55  UK average earnings growth eases during July

Concerns about mounting wage pressures in the UK economy may have been eased by news today that earnings in July increased at their lowest rate in nearly a year and a half. Official figures from the office of National Statistics showed that average earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 3.9 pct in the three months to July from the previous year. That was down 0.1 percentage point from the June rate. The July increase was the lowest since February 2004, when earnings rose by 3.8 pct, and below market expectations of a 4.1 pct rise. The Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has been concerned that a tight labour market may stoke up wage demands, especially at a time when sky-high oil prices are pushing inflation above the target set by the government. In particular, policy-makers get increasingly agitated when average earnings are rising by 4.5 pct or more. The statistics office said headline average earnings, including bonuses, increased by 4.2 pct in the three months to July from the previous year. The latest figure is 0.1 percentage point higher from the both June rate and market expectations. Elsewhere, today's labour market report showed unemployment rising again even though total employment levels stand at an all-time high. The claimant count measure of unemployment rose for the seventh month running during August. The number claiming the job-seeker's allowance increased 1,600 from the previous month, taking the total to 866,200, the highest since April 2004. The August increase was slightly below expectations of a 4,000 rise. Additionally, July's increase was revised down to 1,600 from the previous estimate of 2,800. Over the past 12 months, the claimant count has risen 31,400. The caimant count rate for August was 2.8 pct of the workforce, unchanged on the previous month but up 0.1 percentage point on the year. The wider ILO measure of unemployment also increased in the three months to July. Unemployment was up 12,000 in the three months to July from the previous three months, taking the total unemployed to 1.418 mln. That's also up 3,000 on the same period a year ago. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged, as expected, at 4.7 pct. Overall, the statistics office said the working age employment rate for the three months to July was 74.8 pct, up 0.1 percentage point from both the previous quarter and the year. The total employment level increased by 83,000 over the quarter and by 315,000 over the year to hit 28.73 mln, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1971. One area that continues to shed jobs however, is manufacturing, which saw employment in the three months to July fall by 95,000, or 2.9 pct, to 3.19 mln. This is the lowest level since comparable records began in 1978. Manufacturing productivity however, rose by 3.0 pct in the three months to July from a year earlier, while manufacturing unit wage costs fell by 0.2 pct over that period

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