31 August 2005, 13:51  Dollar drifts higher even as oil prices dominate headlines

The dollar was well bid even as rising oil prices stayed in the headlines, casting a shadow on the prospects for global economic growth. At over 70 usd a barrel, bench mark crude prices will likely push inflation higher and dampen growth around the globe. Many believe oil prices may continue surging. The damage caused by Hurricane Katrina on the US oil refining coast continue to unfold, keeping up the pressure on oil prices. So far the implications for the dollar are mixed, said Steve Pearson at HBOS. "In the initial stages of an energy price shock the dollar could benefit as equity capital outflows to higher growth -- predominantly Asian -- markets unwind," he said. The currencies of countries reliant on energy imports -- such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars are also vulnerable against both the dollar and other currencies as lower growth prospects weigh on other commodity prices. In the slightly longer run however, the tide could turn against the dollar if the global growth outlook deteriorates. Currencies seen as more defensive -- mainly the Swiss franc, Norwegian kroner and the euro are likely to benefit from fresh flows, leaving the dollar vulnerable to selling, Pearson explained. He noted that market players are already doing trades along these lines -- selling the yen and Australian dollar for the Norwegian kroner. The US rate setting panel, the Fed, may be able to help the dollar somewhat if it sticks to its rate hiking cycle. "Should the Fed continue to raise rates to ward off inflationary pressure despite energy related headwinds to growth then the prospect of a relatively high and rising yield pick-up should insulate the dollar," said Pearson. On the other hand, if the Fed ended up putting up rates or even reversed it, the dollar could be in for very hard time. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, US data due out today are likely to get a little less attention than usual. Up for release are revised second quarter GDP numbers where an upward adjustment to an anuual rate of 3.5 pct from 3.4 pct is expected.

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