26 August 2005, 14:00  UK Q2 GDP revised higher to reflect adjustment to industrial activity

UK GDP growth in the second quarter was bigger than previously thought, helped by an upward revision to industrial sector activity, official figures showed today. The office for National Statistics revealed that GDP rose by 0.5 from the first quarter, compared with the previous estimate of 0.4 pct. On a year-on-year basis, UK GDP growth was revised up to 1.8 pct from 1.7 pct previously. Despite the adjustment, the annual rate of growth remains the lowest since the first quarter of 2002, when it also increased by 1.8 pct.Analysts polled by AFX News had not expected any revision. The latest numbers are likely to be welcomed by the Bank of England which said earlier this month that it expects GDP growth to pick up after a subdued period in the near term. They will also go some way to lend credence to Chancellor Gordon Brown's more optimistic forecast that full year growth will hit the 3.0-3.5 pct range. In the first quarter, GDP rose by 0.4 pct and 2.1 pct respectively. A more detailed look at today's data showed that the upward revision to overall GDP reflects higher estimates for manufacturing. The sector is estimated to have shrunk by only 0.3 pct, compared with the preliminary estimate of a 0.7 pct fall. Within the sector, the upward adjustments came from food, drink, tobacco, chemical and engineering sectors. Despite the improvement, manufacturing has now suffered two straight quarters of falls -- signifying a recession. In the first quarter, manufacturing output fell by 0.9 pct. Industrial production, which accounts for some 20 pct of UK GDP, is estimated to have been unchanged during the quarter. Previously, it was estimated to have dropped 0.4 pct. This means that the sector has narrowly avoided recession, after dropping by 0.9 pct in the first quarter. The main source of growth once again was the services sector, which accounts for about 73 pct of GDP. Growth during the quarter was 0.6 pct from the previous quarter and 2.5 pct from the same period a year ago. Business services and financial services provided the main impetus behind the services sector improvement. Elsewhere, the statistics office estimated that construction output, which accounts for around 6 pct of GDP, increased by 0.4 pct, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.The remaining 1 pct of GDP, agriculture, forestry and fishing, is estimated to have posted growth of 1.6 pct during the quarter.On the expenditure side of the national accounts, the statistics office said household expenditure growth picked up slightly, rising by 0.2 pct in the second quarter compared with 0.1 pct in the first three months of the year. On a year-on-year basis, however, household expenditure looked weak, however, up just 1.5 pct in the second quarter and representing a sharp slowdown from the 2.6 pct rate during the first quarter. The latest reading is the lowest since the first quarter of 1995. Meanwhile, government expenditure continued to rise at a steady rate of 0.4 pct from the previous quarter and 1.6 pct from a year earlier. Gross fixed capital formation -- a broad measure of business investment -- was up 1.5 over the quarter for a 3.1 pct year-on-year increase.

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