26 August 2005, 13:17  Dollar dips as market awaits Greenspan speech

The dollar dipped against major currencies as the market awaited this afternoon's speech by US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, while the yen rebounded after weakening on fears of a terrorist attack in Asia. Greenspan's comments will as usual be closely monitored, particularly in the wake of hawkish comments from Fed officials Michael Moskow and Jeffrey Lacker, who both pointed to the risk of rising inflationary pressures. Market players will be looking in particular for any comments on the recent surge in oil prices, as well as on the emerging house price bubble in the US, WestLB analysts said. Meanwhile, the yen recovered, in tandem with Japanese equities, after slipping earlier in a response to a Financial Times article suggesting that Al-Qaeda is planning to target major Asian cities. The article quoted France's top terrorist investigator Jean-Louis Bruguiere as saying that Al-Qaeda is preparing an attack on a big financial centre in Asia, such as Tokyo, Singapore or Sydney, to undermine investor confidence in the region. The yen wobbled following the report but soon recovered as optimism over the outlook for the Japanese economy and the prospect of reforms being implemented after the Sept 11 elections outweighed terrorism fears. "Such has been the rise in interest in Japan of late that the market's apparent refusal to brood over potential terrorist attacks is perhaps wholly unsurprising," said Bank of New York currency analyst Neil Mellor. Elsewhere, the pound rose against the dollar but was steady against the euro ahead of data on UK economic growth this morning. Today will see the release of the first revision to second quarter GDP, where the consensus is for the growth rate to remain unchanged at 0.4 pct on the previous quarter and 1.7 pct on the same period last year. Given the recent adjustments to production data for April and May, however, many feel there could be an upward revision to the figures, which would give further reason for the Bank of England not to cut interest rates any more this year. Speeches by the BoE's chief economist Charlie Bean this evening and by governor Mervyn King tomorrow will also be closely monitored.

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