23 August 2005, 17:02  Oil futures flat in thin trade ahead of tomorrow's US inventory data

Oil futures were flat in thin London trade as dealers were sidelined ahead of tomorrow's US inventory data. At 11.36 am, October-dated Brent futures contracts were up 1 cent at 64.51 usd. Meanwhile, US benchmark October-dated contracts were flat at 65.69 usd, in pre-market deals. "The oil supply situation is slowly improving. Ecuador is getting back to normal, and the power in (southern) Iraq" returned after a 16-hour stoppage yesterday, said Sucden broker Robert Montefusco. Production from Ecuador was suspended for one day last week amid protests in Amazon provinces over the level of investment from foreign operators. Production is slowly returning to normal levels. Ecuador produces over 200,000 bpd, half of which is exported to the US. Montefusco said there is no news at the moment to support prices, and so dealers are sidelined ahead of tomorrow's data. Looking to the data for the week ending Aug 19, senior IFR analyst Tim Evans predicts crude stockpiles will fall by 1-2 mln barrels, distillates will rise by 1-2 mln barrels, and gasoline stocks will fall 1-2 mln barrels. Analysts said gasoline stocks will continue to remain in focus ahead of the US Labour Day public holiday on Sept 5, when road travel is set to increase. US gasoline stock levels have fallen to the lower end of the average five year stock level in the US, from the upper end of that scale in early spring. Montefusco said the overall oil supply situation is better than this time last year when hurricanes severely crimped US oil production. "Even though the supply situation is better, and US emergency reserves are full at 700 mln barrels, oil prices are still high, and well above last year's prices," Montefusco said. Prices look to remain at higher levels in the short term. The last Commodity Futures Trading Commission report -- a breakdown of the previous week's US futures trading -- showed crude speculators had increased net long positions last week for the third consecutive week, as they bet that prices will rise again. Separately, Standard Chartered oil analysts have raised their 2006 US oil price forecast to 55 usd per barrel.

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