2 August 2005, 10:21  Crude Hovers Near Record Closing Price

Benchmark crude oil futures remained near record closing levels Tuesday, lingering around $61.57 a barrel as traders worried about future oil production from Saudi Arabia after the death of King Fahd. Midmorning in Singapore, light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 7 cents to $61.50 a barrel for the front-month September contracts. It had risen a dollar to close at $61.57 following news of Fahd's passing and had risen to an intraday high of $62.30 a barrel in New York floor trading. Fahd's brother, 81-year-old Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler for the past decade, has formally assumed the throne while the new heir apparent is defense minister Prince Sultan, 77. Oil policy is not expected to change. However, with oil consumption rising around the world and only a limited amount of excess production capacity available, energy traders are easily put on edge by any geopolitical change, perceived uncertainty or weather patterns in producing regions. "The question is who will follow them as next in line to become absolute monarch of the world's biggest oil producer," said Energyintel analyst Jane Collin, referring to Abdullah and Sultan. "As in neighboring Kuwait, where both the ruler and his heir are in their late 70s, there is no established system for handing over to a younger generation. "The potential for bitter infighting is already triggering concern about future stability in the oil-rich region," she said. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter of crude and sits on a quarter of the world's oil reserves. Traders also are nervous about Iran's plans to resume uranium reprocessing, which is firmly opposed by Washington. Tensions between the world's largest energy consumer and Iran, the No. 2 producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, worry oil markets because Tehran could cripple markets by shutting off its taps. Iran produces about 4 million barrels daily. Iran has agreed to delay the reopening of a nuclear processing plant two days to allow the U.N. atomic watchdog agency time to oversee the dismantling of U.N. seals on the equipment. On Wednesday, the United States will release its midweek petroleum stocks data that could show yet another fall in crude stocks from the aftereffects of storm shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico and a ramp up in refinery activity to boost production for summer. "These past few weeks have been a mess, so it's tough to get a handle on what the inventory data will be," says BNP Paribas' Tom Bentz. Stock levels in the United States are a bellwether for prices, as it shows demand and consumption from the world's top consumer.

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