19 August 2005, 11:10  Dollar clings to gains after 5 day rise

The dollar held gains on Friday after a five-day winning streak against a basket of major currencies, as a robust U.S. factory survey backed views the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. The Philadelphia Fed said on Thursday its business activity index jumped in August to the highest reading in four months. The data beat forecasts and added to recent figures suggesting the U.S. manufacturing sector is holding strong in the face of rising oil prices and inflation is running near the top of the Fed's perceived comfort zone, giving it reason to push rates higher. "The U.S. data is good, and you can't ignore that," said Nobuaki Kubo, forex planning manager at Resona Bank. "But it's still not clear what the Fed will do after another two or three more rate hikes this year," he said, adding that trading would likely be driven by technical factors in the coming week due to a vacuum of major events. Most analysts expect the Fed to raise its funds rate to either 4.00 or 4.25 percent by the end of 2005, after it lifted it to 3.5 percent this month for its 10th straight increase. According to a Reuters poll earlier in August, most forecasters see the Fed raising rates well into 2006, but the survey of 20 primary dealers showed predictions for the peak rate ranging from 3.75 percent to 5.25 percent. Few major U.S. economic data are due next week, and Japan won't see anything significant until trade figures are released next Thursday. By 0535 GMT, the dollar bought around 110.45 yen, slightly down from the level in late U.S. trade on Thursday but still well above a seven-week low at 109.05 yen hit on Tuesday. Traders said the yen would likely keep gaining support from foreign investors, who have bought 6 trillion yen ($54.32 billion) of Japanese equities so far this calendar year, helping push the Nikkei average to four-year highs. Still, the heavy flow of foreign investment into Japanese shares in recent weeks is unsustainable, capping the yen's upward potential in the near term, some market watchers said. "This is not the kind of investment they can keep on going, given the sheer scale of it and concerns about high oil prices and their impact on the global economy and corporate earnings," said Kikuko Takeda, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

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