17 August 2005, 13:25  BoE in 5-to-4 vote to cut repo rate in August

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted narrowly, by five-to-four majority and against the governor of the central bank to reduce the benchmark repo rate by a quarter point to 4.50 pct earlier this month. The close vote to deliver the UK's first rate reduction in 2-years will come as something of a surprise to markets -- most observers had been predicting a unanimous or near unanimous vote -- and will weigh on expectations of more reductions in the coming months. Significantly, even those opting for a reduction in August felt that the decision could be reversed in the coming months if warranted by upcoming data. The votes against cutting came from Mervyn King -- the governor, Rachel Lomax, Andrew Large and Paul Tucker. In July, the nine-member panel also voted by a five-to-four margin -- but then the majority chose to keep the benchmark rate at 4.75 pct. In August, the hawks who were in the minority felt that the economy was still operating close to its potential. "Looking ahead, activity was likely to be supported by fiscal policy and the continuing strength of the world economy," they said. Additionally, they cited some stronger-than-expected UK data over the recent past -- namely sturdy service sector survey data and official industrial production numbers. The minority, which included the out-voted governor Mervyn King, felt it was better to wait-and-see even though there was a case for a precautionary rate cut based on the possibility of a slowdown in consumption. It may also be wise not to have to reverse a rate cut soon after it was made, they argued. However, these arguments did not persuade the majority who felt that overall economic growth had been subdued in the first half of the year. They were also less convinced that consumer appetite would recover and reckoned that the slowdown in the housing market had weighed on spending. While inflation may well rise in the short term, it was likely to taper off further ahead, the majority said. They also felt that it was right to "validate" market expectations of a rate cut in order to prop up consumer spending. They said a cut in August "did not preclude" a rise in the future if "warranted."

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved