15 August 2005, 16:15  Dollar steady ahead of US portfolio flows data

The dollar held steady ahead of data detailing portfolio flows into the US, helping the currency recoup some of its losses against the euro from last week "While the size of today's moves was undoubtedly exaggerated by the absence of many Japanese market participants, the dollar's direction belies widespread uncertainty ahead of today's Treasury International Capital data for June," said Neil Mellor at Bank of New York The data takes on added importance amid concerns about the burgeoning current account and trade deficits in some sections of the market On Friday, it was revealed that the US trade in goods gap widened to 58.8 bln stg in June, some 3.4 bigger than the shortfall the previous month Still, portfolio inflows during the same month are expected to bridge the gap comfortably Inflows are seen at around 65 bln stg. However, any disappointment in this respect - particularly if the data reveal a decline in private investment inflows - will likely dent the dollar, said Mellor The outcome of the report will be crucial for the performance of the dollar in the next few days, BNP Paribas analysts said While the consensus estimate suggests strong inflows, there are some risks that the eventual number will be disappointing, they said in a research note Bond markets were weak in June while equities were strong. Since the US covers most of its capital needs through bond related inflows and as the country is traditionally a net exporter of equity capital, the final number may be smaller than expected, they said "Accordingly, we expect the dollar to remain under pressure for now," they added. The pound, meanwhile, was steady ahead of a heavy data week Overnight news from property website Rightmove that the housing market continues to slow hardly surprised markets. But some believe a weak labour market report, due Wednesday, will weigh on the pound. Before then, however, there is good chance that CPI inflation in July may have ticked above the crucial 2.0 pct target, in data due tomorrow, giving the pound a small lift. The pound rose last week after the Bank of England' optimistic forecasts for growth and inflation

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved