7 July 2005, 11:37  ECB expected to hold rates steady at 2%

With the euro losing its momentum against the dollar, oil back at $60 a barrel and economic growth in Europe slowing, the European Central Bank is facing louder and more frequent calls for a rate cut. But the clamor seems unlikely to have an effect when the bank's Governing Council meets Thursday. Economists and analysts predict that the rate will stay at 2 percent, where it has been for more than two years. So the key will remain what ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet says afterward. Last month, Trichet set off speculation that he might be open to the possibility of a cut when he did not resolutely declare that the bank was not preparing for any reduction. But while noting oil prices and the euro's slide, he sees upside risks to inflation -- a tacit hint that the 2 percent rate was appropriate for the 12-nation euro-zone. "While the appreciation of the euro exchange rate in 2004 contributed to lower inflationary pressures, increases in administered prices, indirect taxes and rises in the oil price visibly affected headline inflation rates," he said in remarks prepared to be delivered to the European Parliament. Pressure on the bank to cut increased after Sweden's Riksbank unexpectedly cut its own rates to 1.5 percent last month. Similarly, the Bank of England, which also meets Thursday, has met calls to ease its interest rate from 4.75 percent -- where it has stood since August 2004 -- in the wake of sour economic figures. In 1993, the Japanese bank did not cut rates, a move that some economists said put the country into deflation. "With concern about the economy in the euro area unbroken, it is hardly surprising that financial markets continue to bet on a further ECB rate cut," said Michael Schubert of Commerzbank. Lower rates can help create jobs and boost growth and stock markets in the short term, but they also can fuel corrosive inflation down the road. Schubert said the bank's anti-inflation outlook meant a rate cut wasn't likely. German trade union DGB said last month that arguments that inflation is evident in Spain and Ireland were not reasons to keep rates unchanged. "Italy is already in recession and Germany is in stagnation," it said in a report. The economy in the Netherlands shrank by a half percent during the first quarter, the government said Wednesday, the first contraction since 2003. But analysts are careful to point out that for the most part, indicators in the 12 countries that use the euro show their economies are improving. Manufacturing results for Germany, Italy and France were better in June. And though the euro zone's services purchasing manager's index slipped slightly this week, it still showed expansion.

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