5 July 2005, 15:10  Dollar stays at 13-month highs vs. euro

The dollar remained near 13-month highs against the euro Tuesday, with key U.S. economic news and European interest-rate decisions due this week. The euro was flat at $1.1912 vs. the dollar. On Monday, when trading was thin due to the Independence Day holiday, the dollar rose to its current highs on expectations of further interest-rate increased by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Adrian Foster, chief currencies strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said a story from Market News International, which indicated a rate cut by the European Central Bank soon is unlikely, was weighing on markets. Market News cited senior sources as saying the recent depreciation of the euro has taken the pressure off the ECB to cut rates to respond to weak euro-zone growth. The report said the ECB is unlikely to cut rates further in this business cycle and the sources said the next move is likely to be upwards "once the economic recovery becomes self-sustaining." Foster said no-one seriously thinks the next moves in rates will be higher. "But when everyone in the market is moving in one direction, even a not particularly relevant report provides a bit of a reverse dynamic." The euro was also impacted on Monday by a statement by Christian Noyer, a member of the ECB's governing council, who said it is possible for a country to leave the euro zone because the member states are sovereign. Foster said talk of the euro zone coming apart, brought about the rejection of the European Constitution by France and the Netherlands and talk of leaving the euro from some Italian ministers, was starting to disappear before Noyer made his comments.

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