4 July 2005, 12:03  Dollar rangebound vs major currencies while US on holiday

The US dollar was moving in tight ranges against major currencies through a listless Asian session with players mainly adjusting positions at the start of an event-filled week, dealers said. After making broad gains on Friday on US manufacturing and consumer confidence data, the dollar traded in narrow ranges in Asia as the market held a cautious tone while US markets are closed for Independence Day. This week sees the much talked about G8 meeting where China's President Hu Jintao will attend. His presence there has brought out renewed speculation that China may provide hints as to when it will revalue the yuan exchange rate, currently pegged around 8.28 to the dollar. "With yuan revaluation expectations having been marked down significantly in recent weeks, any nod in the direction of flexibility could encourage some recovery for recently underperforming Asian currencies," UBS said in a client note. This week, the closely watched US nonfarm payrolls data are also due, on Friday, and expectations of a significant increase are keeping a bullish tone on the dollar, dealers said. Euro-yen was kept in a narrow range in Asia, falling under 133.00 yen in the morning as the euro continued with its recent slide. The cross gave up some 40-odd points at the start of the Asian day before settling around the 133.00 mark. On the Japanese data front, the more important economic indicators like the June machine tool orders, which market will watch for hints on Japan's broader machinery orders data series due next week, are not due until the end of the week. While most analysts expect the ECB to keep rates steady, recent concerns that it may be forced to consider a rate cut has been weighing on the euro. "Some say it will be a matter of time before the ECB will lower interest rates," said Lee Boon Keng, an analyst at Singapore's DBS Bank. "The upcoming meeting on Thursday is unlikely to be the moment and we believe, neither will the remainder of the year." While euro-dollar retreated to the low-1.1900s this morning, it still has yet to take a peek below, though dealers believe this should happen in the next few sessions, and then to 1.1850 usd before the week ends. Afternoon trade saw the pair inch up to 1.1930-40 usd on buying out of Europe. Interest rate concerns have also been plaguing other currencies with the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee also meeting this week. Its rate decision is due Thursday, a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting. Later Monday, with US markets closed, players will have only European data to look at to inspire trading ideas. UK house prices are due later while ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is scheduled to take part in a debate on the ECB's 2004 annual report in an EU Parliament plenary session.

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