27 July 2005, 12:37  US dollar mostly firmer in Asian trade on rate hike view

The US dollar was mostly firmer in Asia with investors holding on to the view that the currency will continue to be supported by higher US interest rates against Japan and the euro-zone in coming weeks, dealers said "The US dollar recovered broadly against the majors, fuelled by momentum flows and reinforced by sentiment shifts in favor of the greenback," strategists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank said in a daily note Earlier today, the Bank of Japan ended its monthly monetary policy meeting with a majority decision to keep interest rates unchanged near zero. The BoJ also left the level of reserves available for banks steady at 30-35 trln yen, part of its ongoing effort to end years of deflation in Japan With the US Federal Reserve expected to raise rates again at its next meeting on August 9, the outlook is for a widening rate differential between the US and Japan and this is fueling the US dollar's gains Additionally, dollar strength has also been fueled by unwinding of long Asian currency positions, particularly on the yen after the People's Bank of China yesterday quashed any hopes that last week's 2.1 pct revaluation of the yuan would signal the start of a series of revaluations leading to a gradually stronger Chinese currency "Needless to say, the (PBOC) statement was meant to deter further speculation that China might spring another surprise in the market," UOB strategists said The focus has now returned to the dollar's fundamentals and most retain a broadly bullish view toward the US currency. This was evident even last night when the euro failed to hold on to gains despite a strong set of data out of the euro-zone, including the German Ifo survey of business expectations, which increased to 95.0 index points in July from 93.3 in June, and greater than expectations of 93.9 Euro-dollar was initially bid by a bout of dollar profit-taking which followed a disappointing US Conference Board release last night, though the pair managed to reverse its overnight gains in Asia morning, falling from an early high of 1.2025 usd to 1.2009 usd "But this did little to shake expectations that the Fed will keep raising rates towards 4.00 pct by year-end for Fed funds," UBS AG said in a note. "In this context the euro continues to struggle given the higher carry on the US dollar and with risk aversion at very low levels." "We remain concerned about the near-term prospects for euro-dollar given the prospects for market participants to continue to adjust Fed tightening expectations in the US dollar's favour in the near-term coupled with healthy investor risk appetite," UBS FX strategist Bhanu Baweja wrote in a note US data due over the next few days are also widely expected to be supportive of further hikes in benchmark US interest rates, analysts said Later today, US durable goods orders data are scheduled for release followed by second quarter advance GDP and University of Michigan consumer sentiment, both on Friday

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