20 July 2005, 17:46  Pound lower after BoE minutes; Dollar well supported ahead of Greenspan

The pound was lower, though paring losses, after the release of the minutes to this month's meeting of UK rate-setters revealed that the vote to leave rates on hold at 4.75 pct was much closer than the market had expected Four of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of cutting interest rates, suggesting that a cut next month when the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report is released is a virtual certainty "All in all, the tone of the minutes suggests that a 25 basis point rate cut on Aug 4 is a done deal, followed by another 25 basis point cut in the fourth quarter," said CALYON currency analyst Kristjan Kasikov Most in the market had expected a 6-3 vote, with a risk that only two or even one member would have voted for a cut However, by midday the pound had pared many of the losses suffered in the immediate wake of the release, which had taken it to four-month lows against the euro and near year-lows against the dollar Kasikov noted that with two rate cuts this year already priced in, the scope for further losses for sterling is limited. "Although at face value this should be bad news for sterling, we note that a lot of this is already in the price and further sterling losses are likely to slow from here," he said Elsewhere, the dollar rose against major currencies as market participants awaited US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to Congress this afternoon Greenspan is expected to be upbeat on the US economy and to signal that interest rates will continue to rise at a measured pace, particularly in the wake of upbeat comments earlier this week and some firm data yesterday "We expect euro/dollar to re-test yesterday's lows quite quickly in the wake of an upbeat testimony from Fed chairman Greenspan this afternoon," said HBOS currency strategist Steve Pearson

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