15 July 2005, 12:16  Dollar softer in late Asian trading on fresh yuan revaluation talk

The US dollar was weaker towards the end of the Asian session, pressured by fresh speculation that China might revalue its yuan exchange rate as early as next month, dealers said. The speculation stemmed from a report in the Financial Times which stated that US senators drumming up opposition to China have been told by the Bush Administration that China will revalue its currency in August. This would be before a visit to Washington by China's President Hu Jintao in September, the FT quoted people it said are familiar with the matter. Currency strategists at JP Morgan Chase Bank in Singapore pointed to other events including the week-long China national day holidays starting October 3, the US Treasury FX manipulation report mid-October and the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in China October 15 which could be read as possible triggers for a move by China. These have led to a widening of discount rates on near-term China yuan non-deliverable forwards, seen as a measure of yuan expectations, in the past week. Earlier today, the 1-month yuan NDF discounts were quoted at 430/480 vs 300/400 a week ago while the 3-month yuan NDF discounts also widened to 1550/1600 from 1170/1240 last Friday. "With yuan revaluation expectations largely sidelined of late, market sensitivities could well continue to pick up as market scrutiny over potential triggers for change intensifies," the strategists said. In response, the Japanese yen, often seen as a proxy for yuan revaluation plays and widely expected to rise in line with the yuan when it is revalued, strengthened broadly in Asia. The gains were, however, limited by a lack of follow-through ahead of the long weekend in Tokyo where markets are closed Monday for a public holiday. China's central bank subsequently denied it was planning any move in August and reiterated its usual position pertaining to yuan revaluation. "There is no timetable," central bank spokesman Bai Li said. The euro-dollar was supported by a set of positive economic growth data released yesterday. The euro zone data confirmed GDP growth of 0.5 pct for the quarter, making an annual rate of 1.4 pct against expectations of 1.3 pct. The European Commission also reaffirmed its central forecasts for second and third quarter GDP growth of 0.3 pct and 0.4 pct, respectively. "The pair is very much in a 1.2050-1.2130 usd range, but should be sold on rallies for a test of the key 1.2040-50 area, which if broken, would expose it to the 1.1740 low," UBS currency dealers said. Investors are now looking to tonight's release of US economic data for further cues on US dollar direction, though most expect the currency to stay confined in narrow ranges as the weekend nears and amid some caution before Monday's key US Treasury flows data, which will show foreign demand for US long-term instruments. Friday's US data line-up includes July New York Fed Empire State survey, June PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, and preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer confidence. For the currency market, the Empire, and University of Michigan releases will attract the most interest. The median estimate in a Market News International survey of economists looks for the Empire survey, to be watched for insights into the state of the US manufacturing sector, to fall to 10.0 from the 11.65 seen in June.

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