13 July 2005, 12:35  US dollar slightly firmer in late Asian trade ahead of US trade data

The US dollar edged up against the yen and euro in afternoon trade here though with most investors adopting a generally cautious stance ahead of the release of US May trade data due out tonight, dealers said. "Although some have indicated that concerns over the expected widening of the US trade deficit in May have played a role in the recent weak performance of the US dollar, we are more inclined to believe that the negative real impact is quite marginal," currency strategists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank wrote. Indeed, forecasts for the May trade balance are only for a modest widening of the deficit from the previous month, and as such do not really justify the dollar's large correction prior to this afternoon's mild uptick, dealers said. The US trade gap is expected to widen to 57.5 bln usd in May from April's 57 bln, according to a Market News International survey of economists. "The psychological impact of the perceived widening of the trade deficit in May, however, has probably imparted some negative sentiment toward the greenback," they said. Aiding the dollar here was the release of Japanese May current account data earlier today, which showed a sharp fall in the current account surplus down 19.5 pct year-on-year to 1.38 trln yen, althogh the decline was slightly below what the market had expected. "While there isn't a specific variable that stands out as the catalyst that has triggered this (recent) round of US dollar downside, it is fair to say that the market's long position on this currency had been getting stretched from a short-term perspective," UBS currency strategist Bhanu Baweja wrote in a morning note. The dollar-yen pair opened above 111.00 yen this morning after recovering from a New York low of 110.75 following the Japan current account numbers. The pair held within a tight 111.10 to 111.20 range through the morning while sporadic dollar selling kept the pair under pressure, with offers reportedly at 111.20 up to 111.50. In the afternoon, the Bank of Japan announced its policy decision at the end of a two-day meeting, in which it decided to keep its monetary policy on hold, which had been expected. Dollar-yen showed little inclination to move on that and stayed near 111.10 yen before subsequently inching higher to mark a 111.18 session high. "We think the overnight lows around 110.70-80 remain a good buying zone for a target of 111.70-80," UBS currency dealers said. UOB's tech analysts also said the pair has yet to see its near-term low despite some oversold signals but even then, the downtrend seemed to lack momentum, "and any further down-move will probably be slow and grinding." Concerns about a resurgence in oil prices fueled the yen's early pullback, dealers said, after crude futures closed above 60 usd a barrel last night. Late afternoon in Asia, future prices for August delivery continued to push higher, touching 60.90 a barrel at 2:30 p.m. in Singapore. Euro-dollar started around 1.2220 usd in Asia after marking a 1.2255 high in New York yesterday but it then found itself wallowing in a 1.2205 to 1.2220 usd range. Euro selling reportedly by North Asian sovereign names sent the pair to 1.2210 and subsequently reached a low of 1.2203. "We would look to buy on dips towards 1.2180-90 usd with a stop at 1.2150 and take profit near 1.2280-90," UBS dealers said.

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