3 June 2005, 14:12  Mundell: China Should Keep Currency Peg

Nobel economics laureate Robert Mundell, known as "father of the euro" for his contributions to foreign exchange theory, said Friday there is no reason for China to change its much-criticized currency peg to the U.S. dollar. My position, since 1994, has been strongly against changing the exchange rate," Mundell said in a lecture organized by the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "China has had a dollar anchor for over 10 years, and it's a winning policy." China strictly controls its currency's exchange rate with a de-facto peg of 8.28 yuan to the U.S. dollar. Washington has strongly argued that the rate is too low and has fueled the ballooning U.S. trade deficit -- an argument also taken up by U.S. businesses hurt by Chinese competition, such as textile makers. Mundell argued, however, that any change by China -- whether a one-off revaluation of the exchange rate or a shift to a floating rate -- wouldn't be in China's own interests, and would in fact have little effect on the root causes of America's dissatisfaction. "Behind this there is a real phenomenon: China's competitive shock," he said, comparing the recent growth of low-cost manufacturing in China to Japan's economic rise in the 1950s and 1960s. But Mundell said this shock "isn't a monetary issue and can't be addressed by monetary measures," such as the exchange rate.

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