The UK economy appears to be facing a pincer movement from all sides which is likely to mean that GDP growth will fall well below the government's projections both this year and next, analysts said. A raft of recent economic indicators, including this morning's news from the Bank of England that consumer credit in April grew at its lowest level in nearly four years, have shown that personal consumption, the key component of UK economic growth over the last few years, is on the wane in the wake of higher borrowing costs and the need to service a trillion pound debt mountain. With consumption unlikely to carry the economy forward, analysts are beginning to ponder where economic growth is likely to come from. "The question is if consumer spending is slowing, who will pick up the growth baton?" said John Butler, economist at HSBC. Analysts have real doubts that the alternatives, from the government to companies, will help plug the growth hole. In his budget in March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown stuck to his view that GDP growth will be around 3.0-3.5 pct in 2005 and 2.5-3.0 pct in 2006. But most independent forecasters, including the Bank of England, expect growth to slow from 3.1 pct in 2004 to only around 2.5 pct in both 2005 and 2006 at best, in the wake of slower consumer spending and anaemic economic growth in the euro zone. Analysts have noted recent comments from Brown and reckon he is paving the way to a downgrade in his pre-budget report at the end of the year. His constant criticism of the growth profile in the continent, which accounts for over half the UK's exports, is an attempt to prepare the ground, they said. The UK economy, analysts said, is poised for a period of sub-trend growth, which is considered to be around 2.5 pct a year.