5 May 2005, 14:44  Euro сontinues rise in quiet trade

With Golden Week in Asia, Ascension Day in Europe and Parliamentary elections in UK the FX market is predictably quiet. In fact, aside from Christmas week we do not remember a time when the global economic calendar has been so empty. TonightВ's only significant piece of data comes from UK where the PMI Services report printed exactly as expected at 56.5. Although most of the components remained steady, New Business and Future Expectations numbers slipped from last month, only adding more support to the argument that UK economy is slowing down markedly. The pound lost about 30 points in the aftermath as FX market expectations for any further BOE rate hike are now near zero. On the political front, Tony Blair and Labor party are expected to coast to a record third consecutive Parliamentary win, but the market is concerned about the size of the victory. Fears that disgruntled Labor faithful will stay at home significantly reducing LaborВ's majority share of the Parliamentary seats have weighed on the pound in recent days. In the US, attention will be fully focused on FridayВ's NFP report with the market now estimating 174K new jobs. Preliminary indications suggest that the estimates may be on target, but todayВ's weekly jobless claims will be watched with particular interest. Jobs are critical to the whole dollar long thesis because steady employment gains would offer the Fed cover to continue its policy of gradual rate increases. If job growth suddenly slows Fed will be under enormous pressure to halt rate hikes lest it tip the country into a recession.

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