31 May 2005, 13:28  Euro continues to suffer

The euro continued to suffer from the fallout of the French rejection of the EU constitution, falling under 1.24 usd as trading in London started in earnest after the bank holiday on Monday. "There is a risk that the latest political debacle brings greater investor focus on serious underlying structural problems facing the euro zone," said Steve Pearson at HBOS. While the EU constitution in itself does not have major macro-economic implications, the French vote brings into sharp relief just how hard it will be for the EU to push through much needed structural reform. "The idea that the euro can rival the dollar as the major reserve currency is as fanciful as ever," said Pearson. Additionally, the Dutch electorate are also likely to vote against the EU constitution in the referendum tomorrow, piling more pressure on the euro. Separately, rumours that German VAT may rise sharply after the general elections in September also weighed on the euro. If VAT does go up, German economic growth can be expected to slow down even more from the already anaemic current levels. After falling to levels around 1.2470 usd in Europe last night, the single currency's decline accelerated when a key support level at about 1.2460 usd gave way. The euro now looks set to be stuck at a new lower range against the dollar. The euro is now at its lowest level against the dollar since Oct 14 and is vulnerable to further falls if long term investors start selling. However, if upcoming US data come in weak, the single currency may find some support. The US jobs report report on Friday will be key. As things stand, markets predict a strong reading, suggesting that the euro is going to have rough ride. It will take a significant disappointment in the jobs data to reverse the weak sentiment on the euro, West LB analysts noted. Today brings some second tier US data. Both the Chicago PMI and Conference Board's consumer confidence barometer are expected to show marginal falls but little impact on the currency market is predicted. US traders will also be back in force today after the public holiday there yesterday, suggesting that there may be more euro selling when New York opens. Elsewhere, the yen failed to get a boost the lowest jobless rate in Japan in over six years

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