30 May 2005, 14:22  Euro on the back foot as French reject EU constitution

The euro stayed under pressure as France overwhelmingly rejected the EU constitution, but falls were limited given the public holidays in the UK and US today. The French electorate voted 'no' by a 55 pct to 45 pct margin on Sunday in a referendum on the draft EU constitution. The news was no surprise and is likely to be followed by a similar result from the Netherlands on June 1. The latest media reports suggest that French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin will resign, to be replaced by Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin or UMP party leader Nicolas Sarkozy. French president Jacques Chirac's decision on who will be the Prime Minister will be important for the euro. "If Chirac chooses a PM who will simply keep the status quo - such as the current Interior or Defence Minister - this could prove euro negative," BNP Paribas analysts said in a research note. "However, replacing Raffarin with Sarkozy - a slim chance - who is likely to push ahead with reform, could be positive for the euro," they added. Markets continue to wait for the decision. Frederic Pretet at CALYON noted that the 70 pct turnout in France is key -- indicating mobilisation among the masses. But as the euro has been under pressure for some time now, it is likely to escape serious damage, he added. "Lack of visibility on the EU project is likely to add some negative pressure on the euro," he added. Markets will also be looking to any comment on the referendum from the French chief of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, who is scheduled to speak in Canada tonight. While the single European currency appeared to be stable despite the 'no' vote from France, the currencies of newer and prospective EU members were under pressure.

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